GTA 6 could sell 51 million copies in 7 days, according to Newzoo

Newzoo estimates that GTA 6 will sell between 37 and 51 million copies in its launch week, marking the largest pre-order campaign in history.

GTA 6 could become the biggest launch in video game history. A new report from data analytics firm Newzoo, published on July 16, estimates first-week sales at between 37 and 51 million copies, with the "strongest pre-order campaign ever recorded" in the industry.

The figure sounds like science fiction, and Newzoo itself is quick to qualify it. It is not an official figure from Rockstar or Take-Two, but rather a statistical projection, and the upper end of the range represents a feat no game has ever achieved.

How Much Money Have GTA 6 Pre-orders Generated So Far?

Newzoo tracks digital pre-orders in the United States and the five major European markets, and in that sample alone, the game generated $180 million during the last week of June. Extrapolating that figure to the rest of the world, the consulting firm estimates that global pre-orders for that same week totaled around $260 million.

According to the firm itself, these figures make Grand Theft Auto VI the strongest pre-order campaign ever recorded in the video game industry. Newzoo also took the time to debunk a rumor that was circulating on social media at the time:

Contrary to what was said on social media, GTA 6 has not surpassed $1 billion in pre-orders.

From 37 to 51 million copies in Week 1

Based on these figures, Newzoo projects launch sales using the geographic breakdown of GTA V as a template and assuming that GTA 6 will perform like an established sequel, where pre-orders typically account for around 5.8% of total sales in the first seven days.

The result is a range of 37 to 51 million copies, with estimated revenue of between $3.25 billion and $5.2 billion based on the average selling price calculated by the firm. Either end of that range would be enough to call it the best launch in the history of entertainment—not just video games.

The report itself warns: the high figure would require something unprecedented

Here’s the part that really matters. Reaching 51 million copies in seven days would require an adoption rate of nearly 40% among the approximately 134 million PS5 and Xbox Series consoles sold so far. In other words, nearly 4 out of every 10 owners of those consoles would have to buy the game in its first week.

By comparison, GTA V approached a 10% adoption rate at its 2013 launch. Newzoo’s high-end estimate calls for a rate four times higher than what Rockstar itself achieved more than a decade ago—something the consulting firm itself calls “a huge assumption,” not a fact, but the ceiling of the most optimistic possible scenario.

What this means for November 19

None of these figures come from Rockstar or Take-Two: they’re a market research firm’s analysis of actual pre-order data, not an official confirmation. Treat them for what they are—the most optimistic projection possible alongside a more conservative one that would already be historic on its own.

What’s undeniable is that demand—measured in dollars spent before the game even hits store shelves—is already the highest Newzoo has ever recorded for a launch. You can track every official piece of information and every rumor, along with its accuracy rating, under Confirmed by Leonida Bay, and the rest of the latest GTA 6 news on our blog.

If the low end of the range is met, GTA 6 would already be the biggest launch in history. If the high end is met, we’d have to rewrite what we mean by “day-one adoption” for a console.