GTA VI did in 1 HOUR what took GTA V 3 DAYS... and the stock market punished Rockstar just the same

Pre-sales for GTA VI broke all records: an estimated $1 billion in the first hour. But Take-Two’s stock fell 2.8%. We’ll explain this paradox without getting too technical.

How can GTA VI break all pre-order records while Rockstar (Take-Two) stock falls on the very same day? Well, it happened. Pre-orders opened on June 25, 2026 and, according to estimates, generated around $1 billion in the first hour—something that took GTA V three days to achieve in 2013. And yet, TTWO stock fell 2.8%. Here’s why.

The Numbers: What’s Confirmed and What’s Estimated

Be careful—things get mixed up here, and many headlines don’t clarify:

• Official: price $79.99 (Standard) and $99.99 (Ultimate), release date November 19, 2026, physical copy disc-free.
• Estimate (not confirmed by Take-Two): ~1,000 million in the first hour (calculation by a University of Virginia professor based on stock market movements) and up to 39 million copies pre-ordered. These are analyst models, not company data.
• Confirmed on the stock market: TTWO rose ~13% the previous week and fell ~2.8% after pre-orders opened.

So why is the stock price falling if sales are through the roof?

Think of it this way: if your team is going to win the league and everyone takes it for granted, tickets to the final go up in price before the game. They win (with a record crowd)... but your ticket is worth less, because you already paid for the victory in advance. That’s “buy the rumor, sell the news.” And there are two aggravating factors:

• The price disappointed Wall Street. The most optimistic estimates projected $90–$100. When $79.99 was confirmed, the expected revenue ceiling plummeted. The stock market doesn’t punish reality; it punishes the difference from what it expected.
• GTA Online is coming late. Multiplayer is the goose that lays the golden eggs (microtransactions for years). Since it wasn’t included at launch and has been postponed to 2027, investors saw the most profitable first-year revenue vanish.

Is Rockstar in trouble? Not at all

The drop is a short-term blip. Leading analysts maintain a “buy” rating: Bank of America has set a price target of $368, and estimates point to 60–70 million copies in the first fiscal year. Record demand plus a slightly cheaper stock price isn’t a crisis—it’s the market adjusting expectations.

Our verdict: credible. The 2.8% drop and the prices are confirmed facts; the figures for “$1 billion in one hour” and “39 million copies” are analyst estimates, not official data from Take-Two. The paradox is real nonetheless. If you still have doubts about the price, check out our pre-order breakdown.

Would you have pre-ordered it for €80 without a disc, or are you waiting for the physical edition? Join the discussion in the community. 💸